Tag Archives: Brexit

Facts not Fear: The Impact of Brexit on US Business

Institute for Supply Management (ISM) CEO Tom Derry tells Procurious that people need facts, not speculation and fear, when it comes to understanding the impact of Brexit on US business.  

Brexit US Business

ISM took the unusual step this month of releasing a supplementary Report on Business, focusing specifically on the impact of the UK’s Referendum on EU membership on US business.

The decision was prompted by a flood of enquires from US business and media representatives about whether the data for this month’s highly anticipated and influential report would reflect the fallout from Brexit.

“We decided to go back to our panel of over 600 procurement professionals with a tailored series of questions about the net financial impact of Brexit on their organisations”, said Derry.

“More importantly, there has been an enormous amount of speculation about the impact of Brexit, fed by a sense of unease and uncertainty. ISM was in a position to gather real data and put the information out there so businesses can make informed decisions based on facts, rather than fear, concern or emotion.”

Negligible Impact

The report will serve to dispel much of the speculation around the impacts of Brexit on US business. The vast majority of those surveyed reporting that Brexit will have a “negligible” impact on their business. Only one in three thought their firm would be negatively, or slightly negatively, impacted.

The main concerns for those who do anticipate an impact include the exchange value of the dollar, changes in demand globally, financial market uncertainty, and currency movements.

“The report demonstrates that despite the speculation, the majority of US businesses feel that Brexit will have a negligible impact”, says Derry. “This is because the US has a comparatively low export economy at only 13 per cent of GDP, so we are relatively insulated from the impacts of currency movements and global demand. We’re not a huge commodity exporter, although the strength of the dollar is of course a concern for those who are in the exporting business.”

Derry says that in the short-term, trade relationships are stable. “For US firms doing business in the UK or EU, very little has changed. For now, we’re good – business is predictable, and we love predictability and certainty.”

Future Investment Shift

In the long-term, however, US businesses may not choose to invest additional dollars in the UK. Historically, a lot of companies (such as car manufacturers) have used the UK as their port of entry into the EU, due to its shared language and talented workforce.

Derry added, “That option may no longer be so attractive, and discretionary investment will probably shift to Eastern Europe – Poland or the Czech Republic – to have a presence within the EU, and take advantage of low-cost labour.”

Derry says that the Brexit referendum is a historical event. However, in 10 years it is likely to be seen as a political decision, rather than an economic one. “The ‘sky is falling’ scenario is certainly overdone”, he says. “I don’t think we’re going to see the fracturing of the EU over Brexit.”

“It’s important to keep our vision focused forward. As supply management professionals, we work in the global economy and a major shift, such as Brexit, forces each of us to recalibrate our global supply strategies and trade relationships. The EU is the largest single market in the world – we can’t ignore it.”

Click here to read the supplemental ISM Report on Business: Brexit Report.

British Businesses Need to Respond to Brexit Now

British businesses can’t afford to wait before they take action and respond to the post-Brexit situation in the UK.

British Businesses Brexit

With uncertainty still abounding, and business implications not yet fully understood, two separate reports have confirmed that British businesses need to be taking action to prepare themselves for the Brexit.

Slowing UK Economy

The Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for both construction (weakest performance in seven years), and services (lowest growth in just over 3 years) showed that the UK economy was already slowing down before the Referendum took place.

The economic uncertainty following the June 23rd vote is likely to lead to further falls for July. Experts have advised that businesses need to take immediate action to mitigate these falls, particularly in the service sector.

And despite a fall in purchasing associated with these industries, companies also reported on-going supply chain pressures, including lengthening lead times linked to transportation delays, and lower supplier stocks.

Challenges for British Businesses

At the end of last week, the Institute of Directors (IoD) launched a paper outlining a wide-ranging assessment of what the Brexit means for British businesses.

While the IoD suggested that the UK will most likely retain access to the single market for goods, albeit with some concessions, the real concerns raised were also for the service industry.

The report highlighted that 83 per cent of IoD members had a link with Europe, whether via export, import, supply chain, staff or otherwise, and that these businesses needed to begin conversations with EU clients and supply chain to clarify what these changes will mean.

However, the IoD paper also offered the following thoughts:

  • The UK is unlikely to be able to deal with new trade partners whilst re-negotiating with the European Union and amending existing third-party arrangements.
  • Passporting for financial services will be difficult to negotiation, as remaining EU members will see this as an opportunity to shift business to European cities.
  • The IoD expects EU nationals living here to be able to stay once the UK has left the EU, but called on politicians to clarify this status as soon as possible.

In the immediate aftermath of the referendum vote, IoD members considered the key priorities for the Government to be:

  • Take steps to stabilise the economy in the face of any negative reaction in financial markets.
  • Securing a new trade agreement with the European Union.
  • Prioritise new UK trade agreements with high growth markets and ensure preferential market access to third countries (via existing EU trade deals) is maintained
  • Clarifying the status of EU citizens in the UK, and UK citizens elsewhere in the EU.
Coherent Response

Simon Walker, Director General at the Institute of Directors, stated: “In the wake of the EU referendum vote, we now need politicians to respond coherently to provide stability as we work out our future path. We must not lose faith in the ability of British businesses to overcome these challenges. 

“The IoD is resolutely positive about the opportunities that globalisation brings. We were promised an open and outward looking country after Brexit. Whoever ends up in charge must deliver on that pledge – a Britain that continues to play an outsized, global role in a world that is coming together, not moving apart.”

Allie Renison, Head of Europe and Trade Policy at the Institute of Directors and author of the report, added, “In the wake of the referendum, the most pressing concerns for businesses are responding to the short-term consequences stemming from disruption to financial markets, and preparing for longer-term ramifications, and maximising any opportunities that a post-Brexit landscape stands to offer.

 “With such a high degree of integration into EU markets, British businesses need to consider the possible outcomes of negotiations and whether we have access to the single market. There are a number of areas outlined in this report where we can forecast a range of potential changes to policy that firms should take into account when making any adjustment plans in the wake of Brexit, with both short and longer-term perspectives in mind.”

Brexit: Reflections of a Procurement Professional

In the cold light of day, and after a weekend’s reflection, a procurement professional reflects on the implications of the Brexit.

Procurement & Brexit

Following my pre-referendum thoughts on supply chain trade and the EU, I was looking forward to the event itself.

A severe weather occurrence, disrupted travel during a six hour journey from Guildford to Norwich, and with the Mission Impossible theme tune on repeat in my head – this was my voting experience on the 23rd June.  I made it to Norwich to vote #Remain just in time before the polling station closed.

Storm on the Horizon

The real storm was not the weather. it was the result to come in the dawn with the UK #Brexit result.

My initial, personal, reactions on June 24th were of shock, anger and fear.  The value of the £ tumbled and the FTSE100 index crashed.  The ‘Leave’ campaign ideas, clearly taken by some as Brexit ‘pledges’, are already confirmed as “mistakes” or not “realistic”.

But time, even a few short hours, is a great healer. The £ and the FTSE both recovered a little on the 24th after their initial crashes.  My optimism and positivity is also slowly returning. The UK now has a fantastic opportunity.

Staying United

The first opportunity is to stay united. “IndyRef2” is already on the table, and the Northern Irish might follow suit. I doubt if many voting to leave the EU anticipated the potential break-up of the UK. Is this really an ‘unthinkable’ now?

The focus is now on what happens next. If there’s one thing I’ve heard through all of the interviews and opinions in the past few days, is that no one really knows what the future looks like now.

No state has left the EU before. The process is set out, yet it’s not tried or tested.  We have to find a new Prime Minister, and possibly face a General Election, to appoint the team to lead the UK through this.

Procurement & Strategic Relationships

There are uncharted and uncertain waters ahead. Procurement and Procurement Professionals can shine through and add the value we’ve all talked about for years and now have the opportunity to deliver.

Keeping in close contact with strategic suppliers and working together to build certainty in existing trading relationships might be a crucial first step to steady the ship.

Businesses need to keep focus on their mission, vision and values, and make sure they are still relevant in a post EU, UK. Most will need to adapt, and Procurement needs to ideally provide, or at least proactively source, the help and guidance to do that.

Procurement must not sit back and wait any longer for the invite to the table it has been waiting decades for. At the Big Ideas Summit in April, we heard lots about Procurement being the source of talent within organisations – it’s time to step up.

I expect we’ll all be revisiting our segmentation matrices and risk maps this week for starters! We should rapidly review processes and procedures ready to make ourselves, our teams and our businesses as agile as we can, ready to adapt to the changes as they unfold.

A wiser man than me said “agility is core”.  Let’s make this work team UK.

The EU Referendum – Supply Chain Trade at Stake?

No matter where you are in the world, you’ll have heard about Thursday’s referendum in the UK about its EU membership. Have both sides overlooked a critical point in the debate?

EU Referendum

This article was written for Procurious by Chris Cliffe.

Procurious is a global platform, but wherever you are, you’ll have heard about this week’s referendum in the UK.  Will the UK #RemainIn or #brexit the EU this week?

Far from being specific to the EU, I think it’s a global issue. And one I find myself thinking about sitting on a train…

Referendum & the Supply Chain

No one can agree on the exact figure (£350m-£380m per day), but the UK is a ‘net contributor’ to the EU. In fact, the UK is one of the biggest net contributors along with France and Germany. But what about taking this issue in (very) simple supply chain terms?

Customers pay suppliers for products. Suppliers make profit from product sales. Therefore we can view customers as ‘net contributors’ to suppliers, much like the UK to the EU. What would happen if a supplier were to lose one of its biggest customers?

The loss of that customer’s revenue needs to be mitigated.  Replacing that customer with new business of equivalent size will be difficult, or at least take a long time. Whilst costs may have gone down through no longer servicing that customer, cost reduction is not proportionate to the lost business, leaving an increased cost to be recovered from remaining customers.

What are the options? The supplier can: take the hit; make efficiency savings; increase prices for other customers; or pass on the cost to the supply chain.

So, if the EU loses a large net contribution, other member states will either see a reduction in EU funding, as there is less money to share out, or they will have to renegotiate their contributions to the EU to make up for the shortfall.

Contributions are proportionate, so all member states will either see their contribution increase, or their share of the funding reduced. France and Germany would likely be most affected.

Shifting Issues

The UK might view this as the EU’s problem. However, all that will have happened is the ‘problem’ has just changed.

Assuming France and Germany – two of the UK’s largest trading partners – did pay more into the EU to cover the loss of the UK’s contribution, how will they take the hit? More austerity? Or will they pass on the cost to their customers – particularly if the customer caused their cost increase!

The UK will want to continue to trade with the EU member states.  That will be possible, and the member states will want to trade.  However, having left and caused those very same member states to see higher costs as a result, I’m struggling to see why we aren’t more concerned about potential ‘tariffs’ which may be applied.

The risk is that the EU will want to recover the ‘cost’ it suffers from a Brexit. Furthermore, the EU will debate and agree their stance on this. And guess what – the UK won’t be at that table.

Supplier Perspective

From a supplier perspective, losing a large customer simply to find that customer still wants your product, but just didn’t want to pay for it is frustrating enough. But what example would you set to your other customers if you actually agreed?

Of course, suppliers will be happy to supply those products, and even though the commercials of the deal might change, you’ll inevitably be charged the same (or more as the deal is no longer standard and will have introduced complexity, risk and cost). Other customers will be watching you.

But the UK isn’t just a customer, it’s a supplier too. Exiting the EU may mean higher costs for the UK’s customers, meaning they have less money to spend. They may want to trade, but could buy less, or need lower prices to compensate.

Let’s consider Framework Agreements. Frameworks are really useful commercial vehicles (a separate debate!) to access products and services without complex, lengthy advertised procedures.

Typically, a set of suppliers are appointed to a Framework for a fixed period. Suppliers who are not appointed to the framework cannot trade through it, and consequently find it more of a challenge to trade with the public sector, who want to use the ‘easy’ route.

Think of the EU as a framework, and the member states as the suppliers appointed. The UK could be about to give up its hard fought position on the framework. In doing so, the UK will be making itself more difficult to trade with, and it will be natural for current EU customers to look at other, less complex, sourcing options.

So, if the referendum goes for #Brexit, does the UK become just a country geographically in Europe, but in the ‘no longer free to trade’ area? Is the UK’s slice of the EU trade pie more at risk than either campaign have realised?

Well, I conclude that…my train has arrived on-time! Don’t forget to  vote if you’re eligible!

Want something to take your mind off the referendum? Here are the week’s procurement and supply chain headlines…

Starbucks Names New Supply Chain Chief

  • Hans Melotte, former Johnson & Johnson CPO, and current Chairman of the ISM Board of Directors, has been appointed by Starbucks as its new Executive Vice President of Global Supply Chain.  
  • Starbucks has approximately 16,000 suppliers and operates in over 70 countries and has recently announced plans to open a 20,000 square-foot roastery in New York.
  • Mr Melotte will oversee supplier relationships, distribution, transportation and store delivery, and is expected to transform stores’ distribution channels in line with company expansion.
  • Mr. Melotte also featured in Procurious’ recent article on the use of the term ‘strategic’ in the profession.

Read more at the Wall Street Journal

World Day Against Child Labour

  • The ILO’s World Day Against Child Labour took place on Sunday 12th June, with this years’ focus on child labour in supply chains.
  • An estimated 168 million children are found in supply chains across the world, in every sector and region.
  • “The time for excuses is over”, said ILO Director General Guy Ryder. “With redoubled from governments, employers, workers organisations and enterprises, child labour in supply chains can be stopped.”
  • The ILO has developed a new app designed to help business managers and auditors to create checklists that will help ensure a child labour-free operation.

Read more at the International Labour Organisation

M&S Unveils New Supply Chain Mapping Technology

  • M&S released its first online supplier map alongside its inaugural human rights report last week, showing 1,231 factories in 53 countries.
  • The interactive map has the capability to zoom in on individual facilities to see the address, number of workers on site, and gender of those workers.
  • The data for the map comes from supplier-reported information and third-party audits.
  • The mapping technology is expected to greatly improve supply chain visibility, and can be tailored to include more data.

Read more at Green Biz