Tag Archives: procurement risk

The Private Company Paradox

Procurement is going to have to do some extra work when it comes to evaluating private companies.  Kelly Barner outlines the common pitfalls to be ready for…

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Many procurement teams have been tasked with diversifying the supply base. This often means partnering with small, diverse, or locally-sourced suppliers.

One challenge that arises is that many of the companies that qualify for such programs are privately owned. The lack of information that usually accompanies private ownership is at odds with procurement’s transparent supplier evaluation frameworks. Add to this the fact that participating in an RFP process just to be ‘diversity fodder’ is onerous and potentially even harmful to small businesses, and we’re left with a paradox:

How can procurement stay true to our mandate while also finding mutually beneficial opportunities for small and diverse businesses?

Procurement will have to do some extra work when evaluating private companies. Here are some common pitfalls to be ready for:

1. Limited or no access to current financials

This begins in the opening section of an RFx: ‘Please attach your company’s most recent corporate financials here.’ To which the supplier responds, ‘N/A: we are a privately held company and as such do not publish our financial statements’. That may be true, but it does not eliminate the need for the supplier to demonstrate that they are financially sound enough to justify an award.

2. Inability to determine risk levels

Procurement has to determine if there are concerns about the supplier’s ability to stay in business. What does their revenue pipeline look like? What are their customer retention rates? Keep in mind that this is a challenge with all companies, not just privately held ones. Procurement has to ensure that private companies are not hiding behind their ‘privateness’.

3. Few customers able to serve as relevant references

While private companies are not always new or small, it is a common combination of characteristics. The customers of small, privately held companies may be as tight lipped as the company they buy from. In fact, some may view their relationship with the private supplier as a competitive advantage or not want to accept the risk associated with speaking for or against such a company in the customer reference checking process.

4. Missing rigor from the expectations of shareholders

Being privately held means drawing capital from angel investors, venture capitalists, and sometimes employees or ‘friends and family’ investors. Who can procurement look to when trying to ensure that the leadership team faces appropriate challenges to their decisions?

Part of this dynamic needs to come from the relationships between leadership team members. Hopefully they (if not their private investors) are willing to fight to ensure the company stays on track.

5. Looming prospect of acquisition

Most private companies are on a journey towards either IPO or acquisition. While both can be disruptive for customers, having a privately held supplier acquired by a larger company is perhaps the greater concern. What changes will be made to contracts or terms of service?

Will the relationship be valued in the same way? Not having the answers to these questions (in large part because the private company’s leadership team doesn’t have them either) can make it hard to commit to a long enough term contract that both parties realise the desired level of value from the arrangement.

Being a private company shouldn’t be the only reason not to consider an otherwise qualified supplier for a contract. The problem is a circular one: if procurement doesn’t have access to the same level of information we do with publicly traded suppliers, how can we determine if they are qualified or not? The answer is likely to be a combination of pushing for additional information and accepting that some of what we are looking for isn’t available. As with all strategic decisions, we can never be 100 per cent certain that our choice is the right one. All procurement can do is maximise the availability of facts to ensure that the decision to contract a private supplier – like all other procurement informed decisions – is based on analysis, not assumptions.

Always Let Procurement Be Your Guide…

As we move from the age of mandate into the age of guidance there is enormous opportunity for procurement pros to make themselves known and heard…

SAP Ariba’s Vice President, James Marland, believes that the procurement function is moving from what he calls the Age of Mandate into the Age of Guidance – and that’s a great thing.

“The Procurement Department seemed to consist of people who delighted in saying ‘no’. In order to get anything bought by the organisation you had to jump through a whole series of hoops: but that’s not really how people want to engage with their suppliers.”

He argues that an advisory role is by far the preferable option;  “procurement needs to be helping people to do their jobs, not getting in the way. If too many barriers are put in front of them people will just buy it in a different way, perhaps putting it through an Expense Report.”

‘Advisory procurement’ is not a controversial suggestion by any means. As James highlights, almost all areas of our business are transitioning to become more advisory in their approach. HR, for example, are likely to discuss with their employees how to manage their pensions, rather than dictate to them how it must be done.

In the past, IT might have handed you a laptop to use but now many organisations employ a ‘bring your own device to work’ scheme.

“The Age of Mandate was very much about rules and policies: telling people what they can’t do. And really, in Procurement we interposed ourselves into our stakeholders’ business process: kind of ‘got in the way’.  And we were measured on savings.”

But now we can measure procurement on much more important things.

How procurement can guide the organisation

Procurement is in a truly unique position to impart organisation-wide change whether it’s managing risk or encouraging a more  purpose-led approach to business.  But these changes have to be executed in the right way.

‘Why can’t I buy it online, it’s cheaper than the corporate catalogue?’

This is the sort of question procurement teams are all too used to hearing from different areas of the business.

But huge, branded corporations have to be extremely careful when it comes to managing their supply chains and supplier lists.  No one in the UK could forget the huge 2013 scandal that occurred when horsemeat was found in some of the processed beef products sold by a number of supermarkets. You might also remember that Tesco, Iceland, Aldi and Lidl were all implemented and exposed by the press.

Of course, it wasn’t their suppliers who bought the horsemeat. It wasn’t even their supplier’s supplier’s supplier’s supplier.

But we always remember the brands.

“Historically, procurement hasn’t done a brilliant job in explaining this sort of risk to the business” James argues. But rather than simply saying no “we need to be able to offer a range of solutions to the business that still allows them to buy what they need to buy, whilst removing the fear and risk of things like poor ethical practices in the supply chain.”

“It must be easy for users to consume. Not, for example, complicated supplier lists that no one knows about.”

In other words; whilst an organisation might send out a mandate from the top that, for example, they want to buy more locally, it won’t necessarily work if the procedures aren’t put in place to make it possible.

A business striving to make the office more accessible can’t succeed by simply adding another dozen questions to every RFP.

Instead, procurement can implement systems whereby inclusive filters are automatically applied.

“You need to make it so it’s easier to do the right thing than to do the wrong thing,” James explains.

So why does James think procurement is best placed to guide the business in doing the right thing?

Put simply “we spend all the money.”

“You can boycott your corner shop and that’s great. But if procurement can persuade a big mining company to employ local people differently that could have a huge impact on the world.”

“A lot of social change is about placing large resources that a company has into the economy. Most of the transactions in the world, 80 per cent are B2B and most of that comes through a procurement desk.

“We’re privileged to have such an effect and it’s a responsibility that we are stewards of the global economy.”

James Marland, Vice President – SAP Ariba, spoke at last month’s Big Ideas Summit. Check out his interview here. 

4 Ways Procurement Could Better Manage Risk

Procurement pros need to get better at managing risk. Because supply chain disruption can come from any angle, whether it’s caused by a supplier site failure, environmental or geopolitical factors, or even adverse weather… 

If it’s not already, risk management should be a top priority for businesses. The consequences from not actively identifying, managing and mitigating supply chain risk can significantly impact an organisation’s profitability, not to mention brand reputation and potentially, its sheer existence.

riskmethods set out to determine the current “state of risk management and mitigation” in today’s global business ecosystem by surveying more than 250 senior procurement executives from across the globe. The study unveiled important findings around how prepared procurement leaders are to tackle rapidly evolving business environments brought on by new, more complex threats, and the current methodologies employed to manage risk in the supply chain. Here are four areas the survey explored, which indicate where procurement teams are failing in terms of risk management.

  1. Preventing disruption

All senior procurement professionals identify ‘avoiding significant disruption to the supply chain’ as a top priority, but when survey respondents were asked whether their organisation had a significant disruption in the past 12 months, more than 47 per cent indicated that they had experienced between one and five.

Additionally, a surprisingly high 13 percent indicated that they had 20 or more significant disruptions in the past year. Arguably the most alarming statistic – 12 per cent of respondents did not even know whether there were any serious disruptions to their supply chain during this time.

This is a testament to the 12 per cent’s minimal visibility into their operations. According to this data, nearly all organisations faced a disruption in the past year, speaking to the prevalence and nature of supply chain threats at they continue to increase. 

  1. Improve ability to uncover risks

The current landscape has made it critical for procurement professionals to have real-time, thorough views into potential risk and their impacts to make well-informed purchasing decisions. Many organisations have implemented some form of tracking mechanism for risks, but how often the data is updated is another issue.

When we asked respondents about the frequency in which data is refreshed, less than one third of respondents answered continuously. This is an alarming percentage.

Risk monitoring in today’s digital business environment needs to be a 24/7/365 task. Organisations that aren’t receiving continuous updates are falling behind and can’t possibly be making the best decisions for their business.

The underlying cause of this lack of complete information is usually associated with traditionally highly manual processes. Not only is the manual approach an extremely tedious and time-consuming task, it also takes away resources from other critical objectives. Most importantly, it severely limits big-picture insights and increases the chances of a serious supply chain disruption. When survey respondents were asked what level of automation their organisation employed to refresh critical information, less than one per cent of respondents indicated that it is completely automated.

An additional 39 per cent indicated that they were in the low to moderate rage of automation, relying heavily on manual tools such as Excel in conjunction with some outside sources. A full quarter of respondents indicated that they have no automation capabilities at all and are completely reliant upon manual search.

  1. Supplier risk impact assessments are key

Understanding a supplier’s potential impact on the business is key for procurement teams when it comes making purchasing decisions. For example, if a major supplier gets hit by a severe weather event which causes a delay in shipping, that could cause a ripple effect that halts production and eventually leads to a loss in revenue.

When survey participants were asked if their organisation had a mechanism in place for measuring the impact a supplier has on the business, almost half said that their organisation had no structured assessment of supplier criticality or impact.

Having no such assessment means organisations are at times putting their fate in the control of someone’s best guess. Organisations must have clear visibility into their supply chain, including which suppliers have the greatest potential impact, so they can refocus resources on reducing risk and preparing for a crisis.

  1. Organisations must be better equipped to mitigate emerging threats

While being able to identify potential risk is a crucial procurement workflow, having the ability to act on that information and mitigate evolving threats is equally, if not more, important.

Only slightly more than 20 per cent of study respondents indicated they have plans in place. An additional 27 per cent indicated that no such plans exist and 53 per cent indicated that there were only partial plans in place. These numbers demonstrate how difficult it is to evolve into a mature organisation when it comes to prioritising risk because businesses lack the necessary level of stakeholder collaboration.

Supply chains will never be free of risks, but an organisation’s ability to prepare for, identify and mitigate emerging threats will set them apart from the competition. Procurement teams can’t possibly make well-informed business decisions without a risk management strategy in place. As the number of risks continues to increase in this environment, the need for accurate, actionable insights will only become more critical.

When it comes to risk management, companies need to consistently be moving forward as the current threats will only continue to evolve.

Download the report: Procuring Risk: The State of Risk Management and Mitigation in Today’s Global Supply Chain to read riskmethods’ full findings.

5 Tips On What To Do When Things Go Wrong In Procurement

We share 5 tips on how to manage procurement difficulties when the policies and guidelines fall short and things start going wrong…

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Over the course of the last decade, a lot has changed in public procurement. Among other developments, international organisations have gotten more involved in public procurement policy, creating toolkits (think O.E.C.D in Paris), and standardising how procurement is integrated in national strategic plans and development projects (e.g., World Bank programs, and that of other regional and international financial institutions).

There’s also been a big push for procurement legislation to be implemented in evolving and emerging markets, ensuring greater transparency of government spending. In addition, the private sector has found itself more involved in public-private partnerships, and procurement rules have evolved to accommodate this growing trend.

Despite these efforts, one area still lacks sufficient guidance: what to do when things go wrong in procurement!

This article will share 5 tips on how to manage public procurement difficulties when the policies and guidelines fall short. The objective is to avoid or limit potential occurrences that may adversely affect the execution of procurement processes, while maintaining that the expected result must be in conformity with applicable laws, regulations and procedures.

1. Classify problems based impact

Begin by consulting the internal policies and procedures for procurement, and take note of language related to complaints, protests, challenges or errors. Once you identify whether a principle of procurement or an organizational policy has been violated, you must attempt to classify the impact of the problem.
Procurement problems can have either a high, medium, or low impact on the outcome of the process. High impact problems typically affect mandatory aspects of a procurement process and often lead to cancellation. Medium impact errors, may result in a high risk of failure of some aspect of the procurement and can lead to a flawed or failed procurement process. Low impact problems, may be signalled by a disgruntled bidder through a written complaint, or even a formal bid protest, but often lack evidence.

Low impact issues frequently result in “paused” procurement proceedings, reputational damage, or reluctance of potential bidders to respond to future opportunities. You should have a pulse on your organisation’s risk tolerance thresholds. If your organisation is comfortable managing risks, then there may already be a plan in place outlining the resources to assist you in managing procurement difficulties. However, if the organization is risk-adverse, then you will need to develop your own plan, pooling all available resources.

But, before you pull out all the stops, assessing the impact helps to categorise the problem by understanding the procurement risk, then applying practical measures to mitigate.

2. Separate ethical issues from operational ones

Literature on integrity in public procurement tends to focus on conflict of interest, fraud and corruption. Other than advice on disclosure, recusal, or reporting on these incidences, little additional guidance is provided to procurement professionals, unless they’ve received specialized training.

Certainly society has a vested interest in ensuring that public funds are used for their intended purpose, not only because we all benefit when the funds are used for the public good, but also because those funds come from us; the tax-paying public. It is therefore critical that ethical concerns in public procurement be managed apart from operational challenges.

When the principles of fairness, equal treatment, and due process are violated, they can taint the credibility of the entire process, and that of involved public procurement officials to a degree resulting in termination of employment. Worse yet, integrity matters can lead to criminal liability.

Fortunately, there are tools and mechanisms specifically designed to address ethical dilemmas including: ethics codes; declaration and waiver forms; internal and accounting controls; segregation of duties; and access to ethics officers, among other options.

All of the above should be implemented vigorously from the top to bottom of the public procurement hierarchy to avoid even the appearance of impropriety.

3. Keep and follow a procurement audit trail

An audit trail is documentary evidence of the sequence of activities that have affected, at any given time, a specific procurement procedure. It ensures there is an internal control environment that supports a transparent procurement process.

In procurement, the audit trail consists of two main categories:

A. Information about the actual data generated; it’s the who, what, where, what kind, and how many documentation of the procurement process; and

B. Information about how data was analysed (e.g., notes kept by evaluators, information flows in committee, identifying who will be responsible for what, etc.).

Procurement professionals should be informed of the scope of the audit, which would provide a window on the risk areas requiring special attention in any procurement organization. Procurement errors tend to revolve around completeness, timeliness, and accuracy of processes. Resulting recommendations often point to areas for improvement in procurement planning, tools, training, monitoring and reporting, and staffing resources. Pay particular attention to those.

4. Integrate other resources across your organisation

Procurement challenges whether in the form of bid protests, professional error in the process, failure to adhere to the terms of the solicitation, or the like, should not be managed in a silo by the procurement department. Going it alone is not an option!

Team effort is particularly necessary when managing public procurement spend. A good team scenario would involve four to five staff, including:

i)  the manager of the affected department;

ii)  the procurement professional in charge of the process in question;

iii)  a legal procurement expert who can explain the legal implications for the organization and enforce the organisation’s legalstrategy, including who can bring a challenge, under what rules, in what forum, and potential legal consequences;

iv)  a subject matter expert (on call) who can provide specific information on the product or service being procured, including market conditions; and

v)  a financial or accounting member who understands the budget lines of the organisation and keeps tabs on potential expenditure linked to the procurement error or challenge.

5. Seek external expert guidance

Best efforts should be made to resolve the matter internally, however, sometimes, the internal resources are insufficient. If your organisation permits seeking external assistance, and there are no available in-house “experts” with the experience to assist, then external resources may be the best option.

In addition to international agency guidelines, other tools to explore include:

i) national laws, with associated guidelines on how to manage procurement issues;

ii) specialty firms for procurement professionals, offering on-line consultations; and

iii) local, national, and international trade associations which offer case studies, “thought” pieces, and news-setting precedent from procurement experiences gathered from global sources. Many professional associations also offer webinars and chats with other procurement professionals, which allow anonymity, while offering a chance to share experiences and seek guidance to facilitate answers to the most difficult of procurement problems.

In the end, whether in procurement or any other field, experience is your most important ally. The more experience we gain, the more we develop the competencies necessary to manage procurement challenges, along with the confidence to do so with ease. Each challenge brings important lessons, and each lesson will help you overcome new obstacles the next time things go wrong in procurement.

Procurement Pudding (It’s A Trifle Complicated)

Nothing says Procurement quite like a classic trifle; it’s intricate, it’s complicated, but if you get it right… everyone wants a piece of it!

As the holidays descend upon us, it’s time to start winding down the gears to relax and – inevitably – reflect on the year that was!

Time with family and friends for me is synonymous with food! Because I almost always spend this time of year in the southern hemisphere, it’s a summer menu. It’s more about prawns and pavlova than pork and pancetta (although the latter does make it onto table anyway!) But, of course, that other p … the “p” we all love – procurement – is never far from mind and always on the menu for discussion!

During the year I have been fortunate to speak to procurement and supply chain audiences around the world about the trends we are seeing on Procurious and the impending impact of Industry 4.0 on our profession. In order to provide a framework for thinking through all the challenges and opportunities, I have been sharing a rather quirky analogy by comparing the well-loved English pudding – the trifle – to procurement and supply chain today. Putting up a giant image of a pudding on the big screen at a conference is also a great way to get your audience’s attention!

For the uninitiated, constructing an English trifle involves carefully layering sponge, jelly, custard, fruit, cream, and often garnishing with a heavy sprinkling of nuts.

Yet each layer remains distinct, and that’s how I think of procurement today – a series of self-supporting layers that feed into and out of each other. To manage our roles, we need to understand the strengths and weaknesses or the “setting points”, of those layers if we’re to stay ahead.

Let’s think through some of those layers.

Navigating the Nuts

Let’s start with the top layer of nuts. A generous sprinkling of the unexpected! This is how I think about the Black Swan events that seem to occur with alarming regularity these days. We need to be thinking about these unthinkables – hurricanes like Harvey that de-commission whole cities, man-made catastrophes like the Tianjin port disaster, not to mention recent terrorist attacks. If we can’t predict them, we can at least prepare for the unexpected, take pre-emptive action against disasters that could destroy our supply chains and analyse areas of high-risk.

Geopolitical jelly

Brexit is just one example of how our supply chain forward planning can become somewhat suspended by macroeconomic and geopolitical changes. In Europe, the UK’s decision to activate Brexit is having clear ramifications including a rise in nationalism that’s reflected across Europe. Currency fluctuation and workforce migration also impact procurement and supply chain. The costs to import goods within supply chains will increase; there could be a loss in freedom of movement both in goods and services for UK and EU businesses, and procurement talent could also be considerably affected if the talent pool is reduced.

The Fruits of Progress

We all have front row seats at the parade of new and exciting technologies that are driving the 4th industrial revolution. The rise of the Internet of Things, robotics, blockchain and artificial intelligence will create what we are calling Procurement 4.0.

Cognitive procurement & supply chains are the most exciting developments to happen during my 20-year career. These innovations will enthuse a whole new generation of procurement professionals to join our ranks, but we need to be flexible, agile and able to foster a culture of continuous invention to stay on the leading edge and avoid extinction.

The Foundation Layer

Finally there’s the layer in which we hold the power: Procurement.

Procurement is the sponge at the bottom of the trifle. No matter how many unstable layers of fruit and jelly and custard are piled on top of us, we remain intact. We successfully juggle with the events and changes over which our stakeholders and suppliers have only limited control.

Fortunately, social media helps. I don’t know about you, but when my phone is pinging through the night with texts and emails from the other side of the globe, I’m often tempted to turn it off. But I don’t, because for all the downsides of being constantly online, the benefits of being connected are immense.

Three out of four of our respondents to our Gen Next Survey believed that being well-connected online actually improved on-the-job performance. By using resources like Procurious, not only can we maintain the layers of our trifle by staying aware of these constant changes, but we can also gain access to an enormous diversity of ideas and enthuse the next generation of procurement talent.

The Cream of Procurement Talent

To meet the challenge posed by the top layers of the trifle – unthinkable events, geopolitical earthquakes and disruptive technology – attracting the best and brightest to the profession is vital to our success.

To do that, we need to think hard about how we are bringing on Generation Next, and giving them every opportunity so their impact is not just local, but global.

While we’re talking about talent, here’s another “unthinkable” to ponder – our Gen Next survey also discovered that over 70% of our 500+ survey takers intend to leave their organisation within the next five years. How can we respond to this? The worst thing to do is to keep up the pretense that every member of your team will be sitting at the same desk in ten years’ time. Instead, it’s time to throw away the retention plan and accept the reality that today’s workforce is increasingly mobile.

But this doesn’t mean giving up on developing your team. If you’re known as a supportive manager who gives others the opportunity to go on to a stellar career, you’ll become a talent magnet in the profession. Just image the level of superstar talent that you’ll attract if you develop a reputation as someone who produces future CPOs!

Cutting Through The Complexity

Change management is such an integral part of every senior procurement professionals’ role, and often involves driving change within your organisation and amongst suppliers on a global scale.

The good news is that we’re exactly the right people for the job. Procurement’s position as the conduit of supplier intelligence, our ever-growing level of influence in our organisations, and our keenly-honed negotiation and communication skills make us natural change-management gurus.

Remember that trifle?

The challenge for today’s procurement leaders to deftly cut through all those quivering layers of economic, social, political and technological complexity to serve up a slice of procurement solutions in such a way that your audience will devour your change agenda with gusto! 

Bon Appétit!

Debt as a Source of Risk in the Supply Chain

What debt conditions, putting pressure on our global economy , should procurement pros make themselves familiar with? And how can we mitigate supplier risk? 

This blog was written by William B. Danner

Two leading authorities on corporate financial health, Dr. Edward Altman, Professor of Finance, Emeritus, at New York University’s Stern School of Business and creator of the Altman Score, and CreditRiskMonitor Founder and CEO Jerry Flum, recently presented a webinar to hundreds of supply chain and credit professionals about today’s mammoth corporate debt problem.

As the primary point of contact between their company and suppliers – not to mention a first line of defense against third party risk – procurement and supply chain professionals should be concerned with the degree to which public companies are leveraged today.

Dr. Altman and Jerry Flum identified three unprecedented debt-related conditions, putting pressure on the global economy today that procurement should be aware of from a risk mitigation perspective:

1. Compare debt to GDP

One of the best ways to put debt levels into perspective is to compare debt to GDP. In the U.S., total debt is currently at a historically huge 3.5 times GDP. Of this total, corporate debt is large and growing. Overall debt levels are so large we must be concerned about the investors who own this debt, not just the borrowers. A 10% decline in value would destroy wealth equivalent to 35% of GDP, with a major effect on spending. Junk debt (high-yield bonds and leveraged loans) has soared to $2.5 – 3.0 trillion world-wide.

2. Benign credit cycle

Now in the 8th year of what is usually a 4-7 “benign credit cycle”, many executive teams have let their guard down, forgetting the lessons of the past. As Dr. Altman explained in the webinar, a ‘benign credit cycle’ has four characteristics:

  • Low default rates
  • High recovery rates when bonds default
  • Low interest rates, yields, and spreads
  • High liquidity

In other words, credit is cheap and easily available to publicly traded companies, which leads many companies to take on more debt. A great deal of debt has been issued to pay dividends and buy back stock, making corporations riskier.

3. Corporate valuations

Corporate valuations are inflated, with market values far higher than historical norms. Private equity firms are paying as much as 10 to 11 times cash flow for acquisitions. High stock prices make corporations less risky, but stock prices can fall.

Whether companies give in to the mania or make a disciplined choice to break free from the pack, procurement and supply chain professionals can take action to mitigate supplier risk and prepare their companies to handle the downturn when the next recession inevitably comes.

Suggested Steps for Supply Chain Professionals to Mitigate Supplier Risk :

1. Build in a monitoring process

Don’t stop with an initial vendor screening. Companies’ financial health can change and even a periodic review simply isn’t good enough. Avoid surprises and react quickly to change.

2. Get to know the vendors you do business with well

Ask questions such as:

  • “Who is the corporation we are paying? Is it under a different name?”
  • “Are they actually manufacturing the product or is someone else?”
  • “Where are their operations?”

Be cautious, especially if you are not getting clear answers.

3. Don’t over-do it

Not all your vendors will present a problem if they enter financial risk. Ask yourself:

  • “Is the commodity/product easy to replace? Is this a one-time contract?”
  • “Or, could this vendor create a major issue with our ability to ship on time, the quality of our product, or with our customer satisfaction?”

Only if you find that it’s a “yes” to the second question do you need extensive review.

4. Incorporate financial analysis in your key vendor review process

Be sure to include multiple periods of financial statements in your review to see trends. If you are finding it difficult to get financial information, be wary. 

5. Compare your vendors with the financial condition of their peers

You may find more secure sources of supply.

6. When appropriate, take a hard look at the financial stability of your vendor’s suppliers

They are part of your supply chain and could be a significant exposure.

7. Have an open and honest communications process

You’ll want to explore with your vendor the performance factors that directly impact you such as shipping reliability, product quality, etc. but also financial stability. Knowledge is power and knowing all the facts gives you the time to identify and prepare alternative source(s) of supply.

8. Look at more radical options if a vendor looks too weak

  • Make vs. buy decision
  • Engineer a stronger vendor into the supply chain
  • Buy the troubled vendor, or
  • Help arrange for a preferred vendor to purchase the troubled vendor.

The fact of the matter is that today’s debt situation is historically unprecedented. We can’t be certain of the timing of a change in the financial markets, or what will serve as the trigger, but a shift is coming – so now is the time to prepare and put your processes and procedures in place.

The full webinar can be viewed here.


William B. Danner has been president of CreditRiskMonitor since May 2007. Bill has more than 35 years of financial and information services experience. 

Prior to CreditRiskMonitor he worked in brand strategy and business development consulting for financial services clients at his own firm, Danner Marketing. Previously he was at Citigate Albert Frank, a marketing communications company in New York City, where he worked on a variety of leading financial services accounts including Reuters Instinet and the CFA Institute. From 1997 to 2001, Bill was Vice President of Market Development at MetLife’s employee-benefits business. Before joining MetLife, he was at Dun & Bradstreet, most recently as VP Strategic Planning. He spent the first decade of his career at GE Information Services and GE Capital.

Bill earned a BA in economics from Harvard College and an MBA from Harvard Business School.

Three Risks Every Procurement Organisation Needs To Manage

Experts around the globe tracked the terrifying advance of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma earlier this month, plotting and estimating the potential damage to life and property as the monster storms approached the U.S. mainland. Can the deployment of cognitive AI lead to more accurate predictions and better risk management?

IBM’s global supply chain has been acknowledged as one of the world’s most complex. With scale and complexity come increased risk, but the Global Procurement team has it covered with its award-winning risk program augmented by the remarkable abilities of the Watson Cognitive Platform.

Even Watson, however, appreciates some assistance when it comes to risk mitigation, which is why IBM has partnered with an e2e cloud risk service provider named Resilinc. With this new capability, the team provides a composite risk score for every one of IBM’s suppliers based on six risk dimensions – financial, location, recovery, operations, resiliency and sourcing.

The three overall risks that the team has built its mitigation strategy around are:

  1. Loss of supply continuity

The fallout from a supply continuity problem are well-known – missed deliveries, plummeting customer satisfaction and lost revenue. IBM’s risk program is therefore designed to protect supply continuity by monitoring and providing real-time alerts on man-made risks, natural forces or climatic threats, along with financial and economic risks.

Nothing illustrates the disruptive potential of a risk event so much as the recent Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. To demonstrate how Watson can augment risk-management ahead of hurricanes and other crises, the team at IBM shared with Procurious the ways in which Watson’s cognitive capabilities were used to track and provide unique insight into Hurricane Patricia back in 2015 – an approach which contributed to IBM picking up a major award for Risk Management at Procurement Leader’s World Procurement Awards.

Using feeds including The Weather Company and the US Navy Weather database, Watson tracked the storm’s velocity, size, category, intensity and simulated scenarios of possible storm tracks. Interestingly, Watson also engaged in “social listening”, picking up local sentiment by tracking Twitter and other social media platforms. At the same time, Watson alerted IBM about every 1st and 2nd-tier supplier in the storms’ possible tracks.

Once the Risk and Supply Assurance teams had the earliest possible indication of Patricia’s potential impact, mitigation plans (such as closing at-risk plants) were readied for deployment. 

  1. Reputational damage

 IBM’s Conflict Minerals Team must be very well-travelled. From Dubai to China, Indonesia to Vietnam, they’ve conducted on-site visits with smelters and refiners to an impressive 10 levels deep in the supply chain, working with them to certify that they are using minerals controlled by responsible sources.

Every supplier must sign the Electronics Industry Citizenship Coalition (EICC) code of conduct, which IBM has adapted as the single code across its supply base. It establishes standards regarding safe working conditions, fair and dignified treatment of workers, and environmentally responsible and ethical operations. To this end, IBM has conducted +2000 3rd-party audits across 34 countries. 

  1. Regulatory noncompliance 

Although noncompliance isn’t as exciting as a hurricane tearing through suppliers’ facilities, the impacts can still be dramatic. Noncompliance can result in fines and penalties, product impoundment, revenue reversal and adverse press.

IBM’s Global Procurement Environmental Compliance team ensures all products comply with environmental directives, laws, regulations and standards; made incredibly complex by the global nature of the organisation. The team tracks changes in regulations, such as eco-design or restrictions of certain chemicals, then determines if the change will affect IBM products and plots a path to compliance accordingly.

Risk and Reward

IBM Global Procurement’s efforts in risk mitigation were recently celebrated at Procurement Leader’s World Procurement Awards, where the team won a major award for Risk Mitigation, and a second award for its transformation program.

Procurious is working with our Knowledge Partner, IBM, over the next 12 months to promote cognitive procurement to our global community. To learn more about IBM Global Procurement, click here.

Automation: Who Says You Can’t Manage What You Can’t See?

If your business is engaged in international commerce, you’re probably struggling to toe the line with supplier risk management. Automation, alerts, and third-party data are your best defence.

Managing supply chain risk is no walk in the park. Exogenous events like the recent terrorist attacks in Barcelona have drawn attention to the EU’s rules to combat terrorism financing through stricter anti-money laundering (AML) regulations. These rules impact many companies that are increasingly added to the law’s scope: possibly yours.

Meanwhile, modern slavery violations can surprise even the most astute contract or supply chain managers who may have unknowingly relied on invalid or falsified information. In the U.K., The Modern Slavery Act 2015 includes a Transparency in Supply Chains clause, which requires companies operating in the U.K. to address modern slavery in their supply chains. If you’re at a big company, you’re probably on the hook to comply.

Once you add in the more common types of risk, such as the financial or credit health of your suppliers, changing markets, and natural disasters, the sense of how challenging it is to manage them all—in the age of digital disruption with fast-paced change and volatility—can quickly become overwhelming.

Fortunately, there is technology and automation to help you maintain control, gain visibility into your supply chain, and mitigate much of these risks. The right technology can help you proactively steer your organization clear of minefields that can damage everything from reputation to sales. And it’s only getting better.

 Start with real-time monitoring and alerts

The first step is to identify the most likely disruptions to the supply chain, like a natural disaster or a work stoppage at a supplier’s supplier. One way to deal with this type of risk is with real-time monitoring. Real-time monitoring of your suppliers means that you can receive an alert whenever there is a potential for disruption. Such alerts can help you find an alternative source of supply, maintain production, and avoid missed deliveries or even a plant shutdown.

Real-time alerts should be an extension of an overall solution consisting of a platform and business network. This is the ideal foundation to set up, monitor, and manage a portfolio of suppliers to ensure that all essential documentation about labor practices, certifications, certificates of insurance, and so on, is in place before you start doing business.

Integrate third-party data sources

Documentation and data about your suppliers can come from many sources, not just what you gather during an onboarding, contracting, or surveying exercise. There are plenty of third-party sources that have standalone solutions and open APIs or integrations into supplier management platforms that let you address various dimensions of supplier risk and to set up corresponding alerts.

If your company is engaged in trade and has a 10,000-euro or more money transfer in any way, it will need to comply with the EU 4th AML Directive. In addition to digitally onboarding your supplier base, you may want to automate KYC / KYB (know-your-customer, /-business), AML (anti-money-laundering), and EDD (enhanced due diligence) requirements. These steps will help you comply with the directive

One provider that is using cutting edge technology like distributed ledgers is Austria-based Kompany. Their counterparty verification data allows users to streamline the supplier verification process at the point of onboarding (and continually) with up-to-the-minute alerts on any material changes to supplier vitals. Their information comes directly from the commercial registers. Kompany even includes PEP (politically exposed person) screening and sanction lists.

Who says you can’t manage what you can’t see?

Other popular sources of company and industry data include Moody’s (credit ratings), EcoVadis (sustainability scorecards and ratings), riskmethods (transparency into risk exposures in 1-n tier supply chains), and Made in a Free World (visibility into modern slavery), to name a few. These data sources can help you continuously monitor for risks and evaluate your risk portfolio during the sourcing process.

Through technology and regulatory technology systems like those described above, you can design an automated, customized, and intelligent risk management strategy. In turn, this can boost trust between you and your suppliers and you can plan more confidently in an environment full of uncertainty.

How To Play The Hand You’re Dealt In The Age Of Uncertainty

Poker: It’s a game filled with excitement and risk. But just how far does it correlate with the uncertainty of our everyday lives?

Last month, Procurious attended eWorld Procurement and Supply where we were  lucky enough to experience a thought provoking talk from Caspar Berry on risk-taking and decision-making in the age of uncertainty.

Whatever our political leanings, we can all agree that unpredictable occurrences are happening everywhere in today’s world.  2016 saw Brexit and the election of president Trump; two events many  had thought impossible. There’s the refugee crisis in the Middle East, the continued prevalence of ISIS and upcoming elections in France and Germany; the results of which could determine the future of the EU.

Caspar Berry, professional poker player and poker advisor on Casino Royale, knows exactly what it means to take risks and admits that it can be dangerous, scary or disruptive. But, we need  risk, whether it’s in our personal or professional lives.

Have you ever considered what it is that makes sport so compelling? We’re gripped by the uncertainty. We have no idea what’s going to happen or who’s going to score and that adds a level of excitement and interest. But of course in professional sport, as is the case with poker, we’re not the ones who have to take the leap. We can leave all of that reckless risk-taking to the professionals… or can we?

Everyday Risk

Caspar pointed out that the average person would love to believe their everyday life has a level of  risk-free stability and  consistency. Whilst we might marvel at the bravery of prevalent risk takers in the casino or on the sports pitch, we’d much prefer to avoid a life of uncertainty.

In actual fact, there a number of parallels to  draw between poker and real life. The future is far more uncertain than we would choose to acknowledge.

In poker, the cards are randomly shuffled making it utterly impossible to predict what’s coming.  Our everyday lives are much the same. We can’t be sure when something will change the course of the future, whether it be a large scale political event, an encounter with a new person or a medical diagnosis.

The Butterfly Affect

The phenomenon whereby a minute localised change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. Originating from the notion in chaos theory that a butterfly fluttering in Rio de Janeiro could change the weather in Chicago.

Every single moment of every single day people are doing things somewhere in the world which could change your life.  If any one of your ancestors hadn’t been around, you wouldn’t be either.  If one tiny interaction hadn’t happened hundreds of years ago, history  might look very different indeed. These examples are just two of the billions of butterflies that are interacting with each-other; impacting events across the globe.

When so much is out of our control, it’s natural that we would try to limit uncertainty. We set laws and implement criminal justice systems so we have a vague knowledge of how people are going to behave. We buy branded clothing and eat in chain restaurants because it’s reassuring to know exactly what we’re going to get for our money. We’ll happily pay a premium for these things because it lowers the associated risks.

When we come across people or institutions that seem to know what’s going on, whether it’s a religious group, a futurist or a bank, we want to believe them. And so we do.

Philip Tetlock and The Good Judgment Project

Philip Tetlock, Canadian-American political science writer, began an extensive 20-year study in 1984 on future judgements.

He questioned 284 world experts on their future predictions and requested that each prediction be awarded a likelihood of occurrence. The study is widely considered one of the most robust in the history of social sciences with approximately 2800 answers obtained. And what did those answers show?

As Caspar put it, you  would have gotten the exact same results by asking an eight-year-old to randomly throw darts at predictions. In fact, the strongest correlation in the survey results was between successful predictions and the confidence of the person predicting, but a negative correlation!

Why  were the least confident participants correct? As Caspar explained, these are the people who are both humble and intelligent enough to embrace the concept of uncertainty.

How to manage risk and face uncertainty head on

In our organisations we know, for the most part, that taking risks won’t result in someone getting hurt. But it could mean something going very wrong for the business. So, how do you know when its worth taking a risk and how can we become more confident to do so?

  1. Be competent at assessing risk

We’ll never be able to predict exactly what’s coming our way. But  we can get better at deciding when to take a chance. In business, evaluate what the chance of success is, what’s the return on a gamble. If you’re faced with a 25 per cent chance of success and an amazing ROI, it’s worth taking that risk. Sometimes it will pay off.

2. Immunise yourself to loss

When it comes to risk-taking you will fail and you will lose out, perhaps more often that not. Caspar cited Abraham Lincoln as an icon who endured multiple short term failures, moments of rejection and losses. But he went on to great success.  We can all do better at immunising ourselves to loss,  let downs and failure.

3. Embrace risk taking

Casper asserted that if someone is cocky at poker, they’re possibly a bit insane. It takes a level of caution and the acceptance that there is always risk involved. But risky people have something to teach us, we can learn from them and embrace the uncertainty ahead.

Big Ideas Summit 2016: Big Idea #15 – Thinking the Unthinkable

Modern leaders, in the C-suite and in Government, aren’t equipped to deal with unthinkable events due to a lack of skills, or sense of denial.

At the Big Ideas Summit 2016, we challenged our thought leaders to share their Big Ideas for the future of procurement.

From ideas that have the potential to change the very nature of the procurement profession, to ones that got the assembled minds thinking about the profession’s impact outside of the organisation, the response we received was amazing.

Managing Unthinkable Events

Nik Gowing, visiting professor at King’s College, London, says that we are seeing a very human sensation of feeling “overwhelmed”. This is happening to executive level leaders in both the public and corporate sectors.

Building on his ‘Thinking the Unthinkable’ study, Nik argues that leaders aren’t equipped to deal with ‘unthinkable’ events, either through a lack of appropriate skills, or through denial, or wilful blindness.

Catch up with all the delegates’ Big Ideas from the 2016 Summit at the Procurious Learning Hub.

Want to find out more about Big Ideas 2016? And maybe what we have planned for 2017? You can visit our dedicated website!

If you like this (and you haven’t done so already) join Procurious for free today. Get connected with over 16,000 like-minded procurement professionals from across the world.