Tag Archives: risk management

Cybersecurity – What Does It Mean For Procurement In 2019?

How should procurement professionals be addressing cybersecurity within their organisations and addressing the weak links?

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Google and McAfee estimate there are 2,000 cyber- attacks every day around the world, costing the global economy about £300bn a year.  The widespread adoption of digital solutions for the management of big data is a threat that is making organizations vulnerable to security breaches.   The proliferation of new SaaS products on the market and the use of cloud-based solutions are focusing our minds on how to protect our data and intellectual property.  The growing use of bring-your-own-device (BYOD) is adding to the complexity of defending organizations from attacks. 

Protection from data hackers has traditionally been the responsibility of the I.T. department where it should be taken seriously, although some companies have been inclined to put the issue on the back-burner.  Procurement’s interest in cyber-security is two-fold: 

a) it has to manage the myriad of potential security issues within the supplier community

and

b) it has to concern itself with data security issues within its own operations

Cybersecurity at suppliers  

Cyber-attacks do not always come in through the front door.  Many breaches come through weaknesses in the lower layers of the supply chain:   e.g. importers, agents and other service providers. Hackers, whose main objective seems to be to hold organisations to ransom, can infiltrate any of these layers. 

The weak links

  • Your suppliers’ suppliers are often targeted because they are more vulnerable.   They may have access to important information of yours and only have a very immature approach to data security.  It is estimated that over a third of corporate IT breaches are via third-party suppliers.
  • A lack of awareness among employees about how hackers gain access to systems.  The act of “phishing” which attempts to acquire usernames, passwords and credit card details via email for fraudulent purposes is a widespread activity that preys on peoples trust.   
  • The lax use of BYOD at suppliers can cause major security issues as malware protection and detection on these devices is often inadequate. 

 “Cybersecurity is never just a technology problem; it’s a people, processes and knowledge problem.”

US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)

How to tackle the weak links

  • Due diligence.  Conducting risk assessments on each supplier before contracting will allow you to identify any areas of concern.  Firstly, potential suppliers should be vetted to ensure that they are not on any denied party or watch lists. On-boarding of new suppliers should include asking leading questions about their approach to data security and which protective systems they are using.  Many large organizations are adopting ISO 27001 which accredits them through an auditable security management system.               
  • Access control.   The level of access of each approved user to information needs to be monitored especially when there is any change in the relationship with a supplier.  This could be an organisational restructure or a takeover at the supplier which affects access to a shared system.  The aim is to prevent unauthorised access to data and procedures.
  • Education and training of staff Awareness programs and training staff about their responsibility for data security should be standard practice, both in-house and at suppliers.  Advice such as don’t click on unknown attachments, always use strong and unique passwords, and keep an up-to-date backup is a start. 
  • Notification about breaches   A contract clause that requires a supplier to inform the organisation regarding any security breach that may impact either business should be included in any supply agreement.

Cybersecurity within procurement

Large warehouses  of data are used by procurement professionals to identify cost-saving opportunities through spend analysis within their organisations.  Other files include supplier contracts, financial information and many P2P transactions.  We need to protect the confidentiality, availability and integrity of our information.   Cyber-attacks can be delivered through counterfeit hardware or software that is embedded with malware.  Outsourcing procurement functions with no due diligence or using unreliable and untested software packages can open the door to hackers.  Security gaps can arise due to the incompatibility of legacy systems with the outsourced solutions.  

Remember the data breach at TalkTalk in 2017?  The then CEO, Baroness Dido Harding said,

“There was the IT equivalent of an old shed in a field that was covered in brambles, all we saw was the brambles and not the open window.”

 She was referring to the weakness in their legacy systems.  The firm was fined £400 000 by the Information Commissioner’s Office.

What can we do today?

  • Collaborate with our IT department to regularly monitor systems, frequently update internal policies to create a security fence for the organization
  • Assist suppliers to build a robust cybersecurity plan to strengthen their IT infrastructure and cyber resilience
  • Stay updated on the latest innovations in data protection  
  • Work with suppliers to ensure that their IT systems and infrastructure are regularly updated. Ongoing reviews at regular intervals will help to identify emerging concerns
  • Develop a contingency disaster recovery and continuity plan to accommodate any potential supplier failure, including alternative suppliers. Always have a plan B.

Traditionally, procurement-specific risks just meant price fluctuations, delivery disruptions, supplier failure, fraud and non-compliance but no longer.   

Besides the reputational risks such as environmental crises, unfair treatment of staff and safety issues, the loss or corruption of corporate information can severely disadvantage a business.  The extent of the financial and reputational damage depends on the size of the breach, number and type of stakeholders affected and how quickly and effectively the company acted. 

Streamlining Your Supply Chain With AI

How can AI help supply chain professionals streamline their processes and improve visibility?

By Chakarin Wattanamongkol / Shutterstock

Did you ever manage to find out what happened when one of your shipping containers went missing? Are you able to recover your products in time?

Many global companies are struggling with this in an ever-changing, digitised world where there is an increasing demand for transparency and visibility. Consumer satisfaction is being tested by speed of delivery, and as a result, accuracy in your supply chain is essential. Supply chain professionals must find ways to deconstruct the barriers in their organisation’s communications, improving visibility, for example, between a supplier in the North and customers in the West.

AI (artificial or augmented intelligence) technology can keep a constant overwatch on your supply chain looking for signs of trouble and alerting you early granting extra time to solve the really damaging issues, such as an impending weather event likely to close a vital port.

In supply chain management, people often work in silos: detached, isolated, and often far removed from the decisions being made in the C-suite or within other functions of the business. This leads to an unnecessarily complex chain of communication that is difficult to untangle when something goes wrong. Imagine if, in the future, all the elements making up your supply chain could be connected into a fully transparent process where internal barriers are broken down.

When you improve visibility across your network you can gain wider insights into your customer demand and be better prepared if things fail to go to plan. For example, if the demand for your product is outselling your current supply you need to communicate with the supplier to increase the stock in order to maintain your profit margins. Instead of an arduous trawl through past invoices, imagine a service that simplifies this, increasing your customer satisfaction by offering accurate and guaranteed product and shipping information.

In addition, by using AI-enabled orchestration your analysis of total costs and value is more precise and time effective, allowing you more time to concentrate your energy on satisfying customer engagement. This ensures the greatest level of accuracy giving you an overview of your products’ end-to-end supply chain journey.  Supply chain professionals will be able to look beyond their network itself and review potential impacts from other areas, such as weather, news, and transport conditions. As your process evolves and becomes more efficient real-time product guarantees, such as same-day delivery, become the norm instead of an anomaly.

As your supply chain becomes more transparent, it furthers the opportunity to increase business results as the time previously spent on administrative tasks can be refocused.

A real-world example that could benefit from this style of operation is the supply chain in the run up to a major sporting event, such as the Rugby World Cup later this year. Supplier A of miniature replica rugby balls needs to ensure these products are well stocked in their customers’ stores two months prior to the start of the tournament. Unfortunately, due to the extreme weather conditions currently hitting America, Supplier A’s usual plastic provider cannot deliver on this order. By making the supply chain more transparent and with the help of AI, this blocker is flagged early in the system before any time delay arises and Supplier A opts for a European plastic provider instead. The issue is managed successfully and in good time. As a result, the quick response enables Supplier A to meet their quota with their retailers, guaranteeing delivery in time before the start of the event, at a lower cost than if they’d spotted the issue later. Supplier A and their retail customers will not be pipped-to-the-post by competitors.

Now let’s consider the situation when Supplier A’s sellers have spotted that the market for their miniature replica rugby balls is projected to be a lot smaller than at first thought. In many organisations, the supply chain team might go to extreme efforts to get the product’s problem sorted, while the sales department is shifting away from selling the product: an exemplar of common miscommunication resulting in delays and increased costs. Up-to-the-minute communication and feedback from the supply chain right the way through to the consumer provides the correct knowledge to facilitate informed decisions. This enables flagship products to be given first priority, as opposed to products that can get away with a delay of a few weeks.

The efficiency illustrated in the example above highlights how supply chain isolation no longer needs to have a detrimental effect on business results because the internal organisational silos have been broken down. Instead, a more transparent system acts as the catalyst for even greater customer satisfaction. Not only does this positively influence Supplier A and their retailers but, most importantly, the fans’ experience of the Rugby World Cup will be that little bit brighter.

In summary, by increasing visibility across communication channels it furthers delivery accuracy, time efficiency, and business results. All of which can contribute to providing your customer with the very best service you can offer.

IBM Watson are sponsoring Procurious’ London CPO roundtable on 13th February. To request an invitation contact Olga Luscombe. 

If you’d like to read additional related content or get involved with thought provoking discussions check out the Supply Chain Pros group – a one stop shop for all your supply chain needs.



The Key Procurement And Technology Trends for 2019

The times, they are a-changing, and so are the markets and environments that procurement operates in. What then are the key trends in procurement and technology you need to watch for in 2019?

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As I am reliably informed by my Christmas-mad colleague, there are only 125 sleeps (as I write) left until Christmas. That means there’s a little over 18 weeks until the year ends, so it’s time to start looking forward to what’s coming in the next 12 months.

2019 is set to be a seismic year around the world. Major changes, such as further geo-political upheaval, the looming spectre of global trade wars and tariffs aplenty, have the potential to disrupt supply chains and set metaphorical trip wires for procurement professionals everywhere. And, as we’ve already heard, it’s rarely been more important to get a solid grips on the key factors in the market and external environment.

So gather round as we gaze into the opaque mists of the future and make some educated insights into the key procurement and technology trends waiting around the corner.

  1. Supplier Management

Let’s start with an oldie, but a goodie. Wait, I hear you cry, supplier management isn’t a new trend! We’ve been talking about this for years. Well, if we’ve talking about it for years, why aren’t we any better at it? And why is it that it’s one of the key areas a large number of procurement teams fall down on?

Like it or not, your suppliers hold the key to all your wildest procurement dreams. Innovation, top and bottom line cost reduction, avoidance and savings, stress-free supply of services and goods and free cake for all! (Ok, maybe not that last one!)

In their Vision 2020 publications, pwc state that the top 25 per cent of procurement functions will have gone beyond incremental improvements and be implementing fundamental change to process and policy alike. This includes how they interact with suppliers and shifting focus from cost and value to Return on Investment (ROI).

These outcomes all hang on better supplier relationship management in order to tease out further innovation from suppliers (who are seen as partners, rather than sponges to wring cash out of) and closer collaboration to source solutions to problems we don’t even know we have yet.

At the heart of this is great communication. Select the right suppliers and talk to them more. You never know, you might just learn something!

  1. Blockchain and Digital Adoption

Unless you’ve been living in a cave on a remote hillside (or perhaps a Faraday cage in your basement), you should have heard by now about blockchain.

From blog articles to webinars, it’s one of the hottest topics in procurement right now, and is likely to still be throughout 2019. Blockchain is and will continue to be a key tool in shaping the transparency of a supply chain. Information is shared and transmitted easily and safely, while the technology allows an “immutable signed and time stamped record of identity, ownership of assets, transactions or contractual commitments”.

This transparency will have the added benefits, and some drawbacks, of making procurement and CPOs more visible in the public environment, say EY. Procurement will wield greater power and have greater opportunity to interact with external stakeholders. But, at the same time, organisational processes and procurement will play out in a public setting like never before.

In line with blockchain’s increasing influence, there is a predicted rise in digital adoption and use of the Cloud. An estimated $1 trillion of IT spend will be moved to the Cloud by 2020, according to Gartner, as organisations look to make their IT services more agile.

  1. Social Value

There is a prevailing opinion amongst the procurement professionals I speak to that 2019 will be the year for social value and sustainability to really take hold. Organisations have begun to realise that cost and quality are only a part of the overall package and not only do they need to be seen to be doing more in the community, but they need to follow through on it.

That goes for the wider supply chain too. Using work practices and value-adding benefits for communities into tenders will become the norm and procurement will no longer be able to award contracts on cost without taking the wider impact into consideration.

  1. Next-Gen Workforce and Automation

Disregard what you’ve heard very recently regarding automation, machine learning and AI as scaremongering. Yes AI will take on tasks and people may have to move to new roles, but it’s not a future that we should be burying our head in the sand about. It’s a natural human reaction to fear change, but procurement needs to muscle up and be brave in order to evolve and survive.

Infosys estimates that AI and procurement automation will eliminate human intervention in 15 per cent of digital spending by 2019. If that’s the case, then procurement needs to embrace the change and develop, train and retain its Next-Generation workforce to meet the demands of new roles where human interaction and input is still key.

  1. Risk

From Brexit to trade wars, risk is going to be possibly the biggest trends for businesses as a whole in 2019. The organisations who will thrive in this unstable environment will be the ones who are best prepared to deal with the unexpected.

Deloitte believe that procurement will become the forecasters of risk in an organisation, raising the profile of the function as it factors total cost of risk and risk mitigation in supply chains into contracts and tenders.

Risk runs throughout the other trends that have been suggested above. Brexit, protectionism and trade wars make supplier and supply chain management all the more important. The increasing need for cyber security as technology advances is something that cannot be ignored.

Procurement is ideally placed to deal with all of these risks, but it needs to put its hand up and be at the front of the queue, or face being left behind and marginalised at a time when the function has a crucial role to play.

A Little Less Hesitation, A Little More Risk Taking

As human beings, we are naturally averse to risk and uncertainty. But our lives are little more certain than a game of poker – and we’d do well to embrace that! 

Caspar Berry, professional poker player extraordinaire,  knows exactly what it means to take risks. But he admits that it can be a scary business.

“People are broadly hard wired to be risk-averse and that’s not a bad thing per se. It keeps them alive. Its kept our species alive for however many thousands of years.”

“What we call risk aversion is essentially a desire to succeed in the short term. And a desire to succeed is another way of describing a fear or aversion to loss and risk.

“It’s a legacy of a period when we were, like almost every other animal, driven by only short term goals; eating, sleeping and procreation. It’s only a problem when we couple this with a desire to achieve long term goals like sales figures.  In this scenario our desire to succeed in the short term, to close every sale we try and make for example, conflicts with this long term goal and it becomes a problem.”

Life is like a game of poker…

Caspar was first introduced to Poker by a friend when holidaying in Las Vegas in the summer of 1999.  “With my background in, and love for, economics, I got it immediately. Poker is just a game of resource allocation on a terrain of uncertainty which, when you think about it, at a fundamental level is all that we ever do in business and life every day!”

And that’s Caspar’s philosophy in a nutshell. He equates the uncertainty of our everyday, working lives to  game of poker to explain our inherent risk aversion whilst encouraging us to challenge that natural instinct to flee from risk. “I try to show in my work how and why the world is more uncertain than we like to think a lot of the time and why we create that illusion – in order to be able to get through the average day.

“We need certainty and we need the illusion of control in order to be able to function. we shouldn’t be too hard on ourselves… it’s in our genes!”

The benefits of risk

If it’s in our genes why on earth fight it? Is there any real benefit to injecting a little extra uncertainty if it pains us so very much to do so?

Apparently, yes! According to Caspar studies show that the more we acknowledge and embrace uncertainty the better our judgement and decision-making apparatus.

“There’s not a lot we can do about most uncertainty: manage risk where we can; mitigate it where possible. But the economics of risk and reward say that resource allocation is most efficient where we can embrace uncertainty, think probabilistically and stop looking for the outcome most likely to succeed.

“By riding the volatility to some extent we can get better ROI as a result.

“Certainty is nice but efficiency and the bottom line is what is important. Take a long term view, accept greater ‘negative’ outcomes’ and ‘negative metrics’ and focus on the metrics that matter.”

Does Caspar believe we should take more risks in our working lives?

“We should. But it’s easy to say. In order to be able to do so we need to be aligned both with our own expectations and those of our organisations.

“It’s no good one person saying they’re going to accept greater volatility for greater long term returns: the person who judges them whether it’s themselves a colleague or boss, also needs to be on the same journey. I don’t judge anyone negatively for not being able to push the latitude and risk level but it’s important to engage in a conversation in order to try.

“Its our own results we’re sabotaging, sometimes inadvertently, if we don’t!”

Caspar Berry spoke at Big Ideas Summit London. Register as a digital delegate to hear more from him and catch up on the day’s action. 

4 Realities of a Cloud Spend Management Implementation

Implementing new tools and systems is enough to make the bravest of procurement pros shudder with dread. So what are the four biggest risks associated with cloud spend management implementation…

With a wide array of cloud-based applications on the market, many organisations are saying goodbye to out-dated, legacy systems and adopting new Software as a Service (SaaS) solutions. These tools are changing the game in spend management, providing companies with increased visibility across all areas of spending and identifying new opportunities to drive cost savings.

However, despite all of the obvious benefits associated with these cloud systems, implementing a new tool across an enterprise can still be very challenging. For example, change resistance is often problematic when it comes to encouraging end users to utilise new systems. Without proper planning, you risk running into multiple issues that could derail the process and prevent a successful implementation.

Below are the top four risks associated with implementing cloud-based spend management solution:

  1. Getting Suppliers On Board

To successfully implement a new spend management solution, supplier enablement is imperative. The amount of work that’s necessary to get all of your suppliers on board with the implementation is commonly underestimated. In order to get it right, you should develop a supplier enablement strategy that carefully outlines each step of the process. Make sure you clearly communicate all of the changes that will take place, what your expectations are for suppliers, and how implementing the new tool will improve day-to-day workflows.

  1. Navigating the Integration

Don’t believe all the hype that you hear during sales demo—take everything with a grain of salt and follow up with questions about the integration process. Even if the integration sounds simple, remember that somebody has to do the work. There are several things to address regarding integration: Who is doing the mapping and file transformation? Which Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system will be used? Whose standard is being adopted?. You will also want to learn the integration method and inquire about any limitations per integration object. Make sure the vendor spells out all of these details before you sign a contract. This will guarantee you aren’t met with any unwelcome surprises down the road.

  1. Achieving End-User Adoption

Although it has become much easier with SaaS-based source-to-pay (S2P) and procure-to-pay (P2P) systems, achieving end-user adoption is still one of the biggest challenges that organisations face when implementing a new tool. The resistance to adoption typically begins when specific use cases are overlooked or not addressed appropriately. Lack of support from senior leadership, poor communication, and inadequate training can also be roadblocks to end-user adoption. You can avoid these roadblocks by considering all applicable use cases and crafting a detailed communications plan that includes all key stakeholders.

  1. Addressing All Use Cases

To avoid resistance and ensure your new spend management tool is meeting your needs, make sure you have selected a solution that will address each unique use case. Ask yourself: Who will be using the tool and for what purpose? Simply having an assortment of features and functions isn’t enough. In order for the implementation to be a success, you need to make sure you understand how the tool’s features and functions specifically address all of the use cases to ensure the solution meets your business needs.

Although it’s certainly important to keep these major risk factors in mind, don’t let these challenges get in the way of implementing a cloud-based SaaS solution at your organisation. Creating a carefully outlined implementation plan will help mitigate risks and ensure the process goes smoothly for everyone involved.

Are you having trouble selecting a new spend management system or navigating a complex integration? Contact RiseNow today for a free supply chain consultation to help get you started.

This article, written by Matt Stewart, was originally published on Rise Now 

How To Prepare For Post-Brexit Procurement In The Dark

Procurement pros know the worst and best case Brexit scenario… But how do we prepare when faced with such a lack of concrete insight? 

The Brexit process has been a triumph in politics over practicality.

We may know roughly what the government wants to achieve politically, but the practical solutions for achieving those goals and the real-world impacts these solutions may entail are still unclear.

Despite this lack of concrete insight, it is often falling upon procurement departments to scope and prepare remedies for the uncertain future.

International Supply Chains

UK supply chains are inherently international, with much of what we export made up of things we import, so any changes to the regulatory environment has the potential to cause disruption as supply chains adjust.

It is not yet clear just how much Britain’s regulatory environment will continue to be aligned with the EU post-Brexit, as the two main possibilities – something like Norway with continued single market membership, or something like a Canada-style free trade agreement – offer distinct paths.

In one we commit to maintaining alignment with the EU, but in the other we choose to break free from the EU framework in order to open ourselves up to trade deals with the likes of America, where the regulatory environment is significantly different.

The two options do not exist on a spectrum, rather being distinct sets of tools that we can use to forge our future trading relationships.

The Invisible Border

The government’s commitment to maintaining an invisible border between Ireland and Northern Ireland however, has somewhat tied the government’s hands in this regard, as it essentially makes full alignment the default option.

The government still seems intent on diverging eventually, but having put forward no reasonable suggestions as to how these two objectives can be reconciled, businesses are finding themselves having to plan for the hardest kind of Brexit. Modelling the impacts of WTO rules is possible, and whilst doing so is only indicative of the worst-case scenario, it is a useful exercise in highlighting the key risk areas where contingency planning should be concentrated.

What can international businesses do?

For international businesses, the first port of call is to establish a fresh emphasis on supply chain relationships and risk management.

Many businesses will need to evaluate the possibility of finding new suppliers in order to build a level of flexibility in their supply chains that can help mitigate any disruption. Both UK and EU businesses will be looking into the possibility of switching to domestic suppliers and attempting to beat down prices if the costs of international trade increase.

If Britain does indeed exit both the single market and the customs union, as per the government’s stated intentions, it is very likely that procurement departments will need to face up to changes in contract terms, tariffs, and new non-tariff barriers such as rules of origin alongside potential changes in the identity of suppliers themselves.

This means addressing the chance of increased time and hassle getting goods across borders, as well as potential changes in local regulations if new suppliers are located outside of the EU.

When will these changes happen?

Uncertainty around when these changes may ultimately come into play, and how much of an advanced warning businesses will be given is another major issue.

At the moment it is looking likely that changes will be minimal until at least 2020, but beyond this we can expect to once again enter the realm of politics trumping actual progress.

The reality is that in the absence of reliable information, many firms may continue to take a wait-and-see approach in the hope that disruption is minimal, and currently we don’t know enough about the future to reveal the most appropriate course of action. If one thing is clear, it is that Brexit has put the role of procurement within British businesses under the limelight.

Nick Ford will be speaking at Big Ideas Summit in London next month. To find out more information and register to attend in person or as a digital delegate visit our dedicated site. 

Flashback Friday – Can You Make Procurement Decisions Under Fire?

Are you struggling to lead or motivate your team through difficult times and under extreme pressure? We’ve got some top advice from someone who knows a thing or two about making decisions in extreme conditions…

Przemek Tokar/Shutterstock.com

Andy Stumpf spoke at the Chicago Big Ideas Summit 2017. Read more about our upcoming event  – The London Big Ideas Summit – on 26th April 2018 and find out how you can get involved. 

“There are only two types of leadership.” begins Andy Stumpf “good (effective) and bad (ineffective).”

In today’s world, senior managers often struggle to effectively  respond and adapt to change. But the world is full of change and it’s crucial that our procurement leaders are flexible enoughto respond to the unexpected, to “read the tea leaves and meet the challenges of the real world.”

Andy  began his U.S. military career at the age of 17, transitioning from the position of an enlisted soldier, to an officer, and then,  in 2002,  he joined the most elite counter terrorism unit in the military; SEAL Team Six.

The unit, which is tasked with conducting the nation’s most critical missions, has become the inspiration for a number of Hollywood movies and books.

If you ever needed a man who knows how to plan for and adapt to change, Andy Stumpf is your guy! He’s strategised and executed hundreds of combat operations throughout the world in support of the Global War on Terror.

At Procurious’ Chicago Big Ideas Summit, Andy will draw on his wealth of leadership experience to talk about the intersections between business and combat, decision-making and empowering procurement teams.

Building the greatest leaders

“Business and combat are defined by their similarities, not differences and the theories of successful military leadership and successful business leadership are identical” Andy believes. It’s possible to apply the same principles and philosophy to your procurement teams because it’s really only the arena that differs.

“60 per cent of the time, organisations want me to talk about leadership. In fact, the definition is always the same. What can change is the way in which you approach leadership.”

So, how do the military build strong and competent leaders?

“Leadership is about empowering your people. From day one in the military we are taught, and it is enforced, that in the absence of leadership you must stand up and take control.

“Instead of creating individuals that think reactively in nature, we instead create individuals that think proactively.  You don’t have to be in a leadership position now to think two or three steps ahead.  In doing so, when a decision presents itself you’ll already have an answer for it.”

Does Andy believe these skills can be taught or are natural leaders exactly that?

“neither successful teams or leaders occur by accident, these are skills that must be learned, practiced, and refined. Navy SEALs are successful because of how we select, train, and lead our teams.

“Nothing in that process happens accidentally, everything is calculated. We demand leadership and accountability from each individual starting from the first day of training. We prioritise the individuals to our left and right, and the goal of our team over personal success. This philosophy is diametrically opposed to what is often found in society, and requires a structured approach and prioritisation from leaders to be successful.”

And Andy has some strong words of advice for any over-confident leaders out there. “The 1st leadership principle within the SEAL Team is ego; if you have a massive ego you’re more concerned that your ideas and strategy is being used as opposed to striving for success of the team. You can’t meet the challenges of the real world this way!”

Plan, plan and plan some more!

“We plan for everthing in the navy. We often say that if you want to shut down the military, you simply need to shut down powerpoint!

“Every stage of a plan gets one slide and there might be between five and seven slides on the ‘what-ifs’, the contingencies. Where will we land this helicopter? Where is the nearest location for medical treatment and what alternate options do we have?” When, as Andy points out, precisely 0 per cent of planning goes as expected, contingencies are everything!

“You make primary, secondary and tertiary plans because you don’t want to have make snap decisions in a crisis. You need to be able to fall back on stable procedures”

And of course, it can’t hurt that contingency planning makes you look like something of a genius! “It’s really hard to make difficult decisions in a crisis because you’re in a time compressed environment and you may have people’s lives depending on you.  We plan for 24 -72 hours and there are 5 phases per plan. Each phase has 5-7 ‘what if‘ contingency plans because, at the end of the day, you don’t want to make decisions in a crisis, you want to be able to draw on a branch diagram.

“It’s the contingency planning especially in the SEAL teams that makes the difference between success and failure in moments of crisis.”

What can our procurement teams learn from this? Spend a lot more time planning, for starters! But Andy also reinforces the value in having baseline standards to fall back upon. “Businesses should always fall back on standard procedures so people can come together, with a clear knowledge of the protocol. This is especially crucial when you’re working under restrictive time constraints.”

Andy’s final words of advice? “Don’t get attached to your plan -get attached to success!”

Andy Stumpf spoke at the Chicago Big Ideas Summit 2017. Read more about our upcoming event  – The London Big Ideas Summit – on 26th April 2018 and find out how you can get involved. 

Debt as a Source of Risk in the Supply Chain

What debt conditions, putting pressure on our global economy , should procurement pros make themselves familiar with? And how can we mitigate supplier risk? 

This blog was written by William B. Danner

Two leading authorities on corporate financial health, Dr. Edward Altman, Professor of Finance, Emeritus, at New York University’s Stern School of Business and creator of the Altman Score, and CreditRiskMonitor Founder and CEO Jerry Flum, recently presented a webinar to hundreds of supply chain and credit professionals about today’s mammoth corporate debt problem.

As the primary point of contact between their company and suppliers – not to mention a first line of defense against third party risk – procurement and supply chain professionals should be concerned with the degree to which public companies are leveraged today.

Dr. Altman and Jerry Flum identified three unprecedented debt-related conditions, putting pressure on the global economy today that procurement should be aware of from a risk mitigation perspective:

1. Compare debt to GDP

One of the best ways to put debt levels into perspective is to compare debt to GDP. In the U.S., total debt is currently at a historically huge 3.5 times GDP. Of this total, corporate debt is large and growing. Overall debt levels are so large we must be concerned about the investors who own this debt, not just the borrowers. A 10% decline in value would destroy wealth equivalent to 35% of GDP, with a major effect on spending. Junk debt (high-yield bonds and leveraged loans) has soared to $2.5 – 3.0 trillion world-wide.

2. Benign credit cycle

Now in the 8th year of what is usually a 4-7 “benign credit cycle”, many executive teams have let their guard down, forgetting the lessons of the past. As Dr. Altman explained in the webinar, a ‘benign credit cycle’ has four characteristics:

  • Low default rates
  • High recovery rates when bonds default
  • Low interest rates, yields, and spreads
  • High liquidity

In other words, credit is cheap and easily available to publicly traded companies, which leads many companies to take on more debt. A great deal of debt has been issued to pay dividends and buy back stock, making corporations riskier.

3. Corporate valuations

Corporate valuations are inflated, with market values far higher than historical norms. Private equity firms are paying as much as 10 to 11 times cash flow for acquisitions. High stock prices make corporations less risky, but stock prices can fall.

Whether companies give in to the mania or make a disciplined choice to break free from the pack, procurement and supply chain professionals can take action to mitigate supplier risk and prepare their companies to handle the downturn when the next recession inevitably comes.

Suggested Steps for Supply Chain Professionals to Mitigate Supplier Risk :

1. Build in a monitoring process

Don’t stop with an initial vendor screening. Companies’ financial health can change and even a periodic review simply isn’t good enough. Avoid surprises and react quickly to change.

2. Get to know the vendors you do business with well

Ask questions such as:

  • “Who is the corporation we are paying? Is it under a different name?”
  • “Are they actually manufacturing the product or is someone else?”
  • “Where are their operations?”

Be cautious, especially if you are not getting clear answers.

3. Don’t over-do it

Not all your vendors will present a problem if they enter financial risk. Ask yourself:

  • “Is the commodity/product easy to replace? Is this a one-time contract?”
  • “Or, could this vendor create a major issue with our ability to ship on time, the quality of our product, or with our customer satisfaction?”

Only if you find that it’s a “yes” to the second question do you need extensive review.

4. Incorporate financial analysis in your key vendor review process

Be sure to include multiple periods of financial statements in your review to see trends. If you are finding it difficult to get financial information, be wary. 

5. Compare your vendors with the financial condition of their peers

You may find more secure sources of supply.

6. When appropriate, take a hard look at the financial stability of your vendor’s suppliers

They are part of your supply chain and could be a significant exposure.

7. Have an open and honest communications process

You’ll want to explore with your vendor the performance factors that directly impact you such as shipping reliability, product quality, etc. but also financial stability. Knowledge is power and knowing all the facts gives you the time to identify and prepare alternative source(s) of supply.

8. Look at more radical options if a vendor looks too weak

  • Make vs. buy decision
  • Engineer a stronger vendor into the supply chain
  • Buy the troubled vendor, or
  • Help arrange for a preferred vendor to purchase the troubled vendor.

The fact of the matter is that today’s debt situation is historically unprecedented. We can’t be certain of the timing of a change in the financial markets, or what will serve as the trigger, but a shift is coming – so now is the time to prepare and put your processes and procedures in place.

The full webinar can be viewed here.


William B. Danner has been president of CreditRiskMonitor since May 2007. Bill has more than 35 years of financial and information services experience. 

Prior to CreditRiskMonitor he worked in brand strategy and business development consulting for financial services clients at his own firm, Danner Marketing. Previously he was at Citigate Albert Frank, a marketing communications company in New York City, where he worked on a variety of leading financial services accounts including Reuters Instinet and the CFA Institute. From 1997 to 2001, Bill was Vice President of Market Development at MetLife’s employee-benefits business. Before joining MetLife, he was at Dun & Bradstreet, most recently as VP Strategic Planning. He spent the first decade of his career at GE Information Services and GE Capital.

Bill earned a BA in economics from Harvard College and an MBA from Harvard Business School.

Automation: Who Says You Can’t Manage What You Can’t See?

If your business is engaged in international commerce, you’re probably struggling to toe the line with supplier risk management. Automation, alerts, and third-party data are your best defence.

Managing supply chain risk is no walk in the park. Exogenous events like the recent terrorist attacks in Barcelona have drawn attention to the EU’s rules to combat terrorism financing through stricter anti-money laundering (AML) regulations. These rules impact many companies that are increasingly added to the law’s scope: possibly yours.

Meanwhile, modern slavery violations can surprise even the most astute contract or supply chain managers who may have unknowingly relied on invalid or falsified information. In the U.K., The Modern Slavery Act 2015 includes a Transparency in Supply Chains clause, which requires companies operating in the U.K. to address modern slavery in their supply chains. If you’re at a big company, you’re probably on the hook to comply.

Once you add in the more common types of risk, such as the financial or credit health of your suppliers, changing markets, and natural disasters, the sense of how challenging it is to manage them all—in the age of digital disruption with fast-paced change and volatility—can quickly become overwhelming.

Fortunately, there is technology and automation to help you maintain control, gain visibility into your supply chain, and mitigate much of these risks. The right technology can help you proactively steer your organization clear of minefields that can damage everything from reputation to sales. And it’s only getting better.

 Start with real-time monitoring and alerts

The first step is to identify the most likely disruptions to the supply chain, like a natural disaster or a work stoppage at a supplier’s supplier. One way to deal with this type of risk is with real-time monitoring. Real-time monitoring of your suppliers means that you can receive an alert whenever there is a potential for disruption. Such alerts can help you find an alternative source of supply, maintain production, and avoid missed deliveries or even a plant shutdown.

Real-time alerts should be an extension of an overall solution consisting of a platform and business network. This is the ideal foundation to set up, monitor, and manage a portfolio of suppliers to ensure that all essential documentation about labor practices, certifications, certificates of insurance, and so on, is in place before you start doing business.

Integrate third-party data sources

Documentation and data about your suppliers can come from many sources, not just what you gather during an onboarding, contracting, or surveying exercise. There are plenty of third-party sources that have standalone solutions and open APIs or integrations into supplier management platforms that let you address various dimensions of supplier risk and to set up corresponding alerts.

If your company is engaged in trade and has a 10,000-euro or more money transfer in any way, it will need to comply with the EU 4th AML Directive. In addition to digitally onboarding your supplier base, you may want to automate KYC / KYB (know-your-customer, /-business), AML (anti-money-laundering), and EDD (enhanced due diligence) requirements. These steps will help you comply with the directive

One provider that is using cutting edge technology like distributed ledgers is Austria-based Kompany. Their counterparty verification data allows users to streamline the supplier verification process at the point of onboarding (and continually) with up-to-the-minute alerts on any material changes to supplier vitals. Their information comes directly from the commercial registers. Kompany even includes PEP (politically exposed person) screening and sanction lists.

Who says you can’t manage what you can’t see?

Other popular sources of company and industry data include Moody’s (credit ratings), EcoVadis (sustainability scorecards and ratings), riskmethods (transparency into risk exposures in 1-n tier supply chains), and Made in a Free World (visibility into modern slavery), to name a few. These data sources can help you continuously monitor for risks and evaluate your risk portfolio during the sourcing process.

Through technology and regulatory technology systems like those described above, you can design an automated, customized, and intelligent risk management strategy. In turn, this can boost trust between you and your suppliers and you can plan more confidently in an environment full of uncertainty.

Cladding Purchase in the Spotlight After Grenfell Tower Fire

After the tragic death of at least 58 people in the Grenfell Tower fire, confusion remains over whether the decision to use combustible panels in its construction was in accordance with British building regulations.

 

The Guardian and the BBC have both reported that Reynobond panels with a combustible polyethylene (PE) core were used in a refurbishment of the 24-storey Grenfell Tower, completed last year. This has yet to be independently confirmed by investigators, although it would explain the frighteningly rapid spread of the fire. The thermoplastic material is known to melt and drip as it burns, which spreads the fire downwards as well as upwards.

Manufacturer’s own warning ignored

A Reynobond brochure from 2016 shows that PE cores are only suitable for buildings up to 10 metres in height, while panels with a fire-retardant (FR) core should be used up to 30 metres. Grenfell Tower is 60 metres tall, for which Reynobond recommends their A2 model, with a non-combustible core.

The Guardian’s report states that the Reynobond PE cladding supplied to the companies refurbishing Grenfell Tower was £2 cheaper per square metre than the alternative Reynobond FR.

Confusion over legality of PE panels

While media outlets have pointed out the PE panels are banned in the U.S. and Europe, there remains some confusion as to whether they are legal in the U.K. or not.

Two Government ministers have said that “in their understanding”, the use of the cladding is against British building regulations.

Treasury chief Philip Hammond told BBC News: “My understanding is that the cladding in question, which is banned in Europe and the US, is also banned here. So there are two separate questions: one, are our regulations correct; do they permit the right kind of materials and ban the wrong kind of materials; and the second is were they correctly complied with, and that will be a subject the inquiry will look at and will also be a subject the separate criminal investigation will look at.”

Trade Minister Greg Hands told Sky news: “My understanding is that the cladding that was reported wasn’t in accordance with UK building regulations. We need to find out precisely what cladding was used and how it was attached.”

Vague building codes

A Reuters report found that British building regulations documents did not specifically say PE-core panels should not be used, yet that doesn’t mean builders are clearly permitted to use them: “British safety regulations across many industries are usually principles rather than rules-based.”

This means the law often requires companies to act safely without giving a specific definition of what this would involve. Firms are instead expected to be able to prove in court that they “behaved in a way that their industry would consider safe, given current knowledge and technology”.

The Fire Protection Association (FPA), an industry body, has reportedly lobbied for years for the government to make it a statutory requirement for local authorities and companies to use only fire-retardant material. 

Paper trail

Lawmakers have urged the Government and the police to immediately seize all documents relating to the building’s renovation to prevent the destruction of evidence that could show criminal wrongdoing.

“The Prime Minister needs to act immediately to ensure that all evidence is protected so that everyone culpable for what happened at Grenfell Tower is held to account and feels the full force of the law,” said Labour lawmaker David Lammy. This means that all emails, minutes of meetings, correspondence with contractors, safety assessments, specifications and reports, must be kept intact.

The Government is reportedly carrying out an urgent inspection of other tower blocks in Britain to assess their safety. There are roughly 2,500 similar apartment towers throughout Britain.