Tag Archives: uk procurement

Three Key Steps To Getting Brexit Ready

It’s been over two years since the UK voted to leave the EU. But beyond the exit date of 29 March 2019, little is known about the details of the Brexit agreement…
Negotiations between Brussels and Whitehall are rumbling on with little sign of a breakthrough. And the longer they continue the less likely it seems a deal will be struck.

A recent EU exit impact study conducted by Efficio for a UK central government department indicated a potential 8 per cent increase in costs as a result of Brexit.

Yet a poll of 800 business leaders carried out by the Institute of Directors has revealed that 49 per cent of businesses do “not anticipate drawing up nor implementing any contingency plans for Brexit”.

Similarly, a Survation survey commissioned by Maritime UK found that nearly half of businesses polled have done ‘very little’ or no preparation in anticipation of the UK leaving without a deal – despite two-thirds of business leaders believing such a scenario is ‘very likely’ or ‘likely’. Only 27 per cent  consider it ‘unlikely’, with another 8 per cent saying they are unsure.

Stick or twist?

Few can argue that these are unprecedented times, the likes of which Europe has never seen before. There’s no blueprint for untangling member states from the union – a situation made more complex by the need for Brussels to safeguard the EU project and potentially make the UK pay a high price for ‘independence’.

The majority of public and private sector organisations appear to be biding their time, waiting to see the terms of an exit agreement before they invest time and money in putting contingency plans in place. Is this a deliberate, tactical approach? Or could it be that procurement teams are unsure of what action to take and/or lack the capacity to deal with the task ahead?

Whatever the situation, now is not the time to hunker down and do nothing. On the contrary, businesses should be using these crucial few months to assess the scale of the impact on their supply chains and ready themselves to respond to what lies ahead.

Sourcing strategies, suppliers, contracts

Organisations should start by considering three core pillars of procurement, namely existing contracts, sourcing strategies and current suppliers.

1. Contracts

Form a clear understanding of your contract risk profile. Identify your risks against a hierarchy of needs. Examples of potential risks may include EU funding reliance, lack of freedom of movement restricting labour availability and driving wage increases or foreign exchange and tariffs creating cost pressure. Examine key contract clauses linked to EU exit readiness, such as termination, cost pressures and continuity resulting from legal change to determine where further risks may lie.

2. Sourcing strategies 

Review your existing category strategies to understand category objectives, sourcing strategies and the pipeline of work. Identify which elements will be affected by the EU exit and, where this impact is significant, determine how to take account of EU exit activity in your category plans.

3. Suppliers

Engage your suppliers and assess the wider market to pinpoint cost and risk drivers in key categories. Work with your suppliers to review expected pressures resulting from Brexit, their current mitigation plans and their view of the company’s main risks. Then encourage them to implement effective business continuity plans.

Deep knowledge of these areas, coupled with strong contingency plans to deal with change, are essential to manage risks and seize opportunities.

Act now to get ahead

Efficio is working with a number of public and private sector companies, including large central government departments, to carry out detailed readiness analysis ahead of the EU exit. The service is designed to prepare organisations to make fast, structured change and mitigate risk when the time comes.

To find out how we can support you in getting Brexit-ready, visit our website.

Brexit: What Happens Now?

Brexit is complicated and it’s very, very messy. And what happens during the next couple of years will be determined by a number of political factors…

At last month’s CPO roundtable Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe based at Kings College London, spoke to us about the long-term causes of Brexit and their future implications.

“Hand on heart I don’t know [what’s going to happen]” he said. “If I could answer that I’d be rich and famous!”

It’s the most uncertain moment in British politics since World War Two and what’s striking is that, two years on from the referendum, nothing has been decided.

A key reason for such uncertainty is the nature of the referendum itself.  As Anand explained, the referendum packaged so many different options and outcomes into a binary choice: leave or remain.  No one understood quite what they were signing up for and since the result, Brexit has largely been defined in terms of the different adjectives applied to it; black Brexit; white Brexit; hard Brexit; soft Brexit; white red and blue Brexit… the list goes on.

“Brexit was a vote against globalisation and it was a vote against the economic status quo. Subsequently, it’s interesting  to see that the South of England has noticed the North and we’ve had a chance to address issues that never got air time under old centrist, liberal politics.

“More profoundly, the referendum and its outcome have taught us about us. In the same way that Trump has been a wakeup call for the U.S, the fallout from Brexit should be a wakeup call to our politicians to think about the real problems confronting the country. ”

And how to best to manage negotiations as we ready to leave the EU.

Does the UK want to establish a relationship with the EU similar to that of Norway’s or maybe more like a more distant partner?

Anand admitted that due to Brexit being such a complex and all-consuming process, there is no avoiding it being a messy one at that! What happens during the next couple of years will largely be determined by the following three political factors:

  1. Theresa May

The UK Prime Minister relatively quickly defined what she meant by Brexit (leave customs market, end free movement etc) and her position has remained relatively unchanged since. Whilst she is unpopular with many in her party, it is unlikely her critics will choose to get rid of her yet. As long as she in place, she is a powerful force for stability.

  1. The Conservative Government

There are a significant number of Tory MPs who want a much softer Brexit than the Prime Minister is proposing so it’s possible they will vote against May’s Brexit deal. However, if May loses this vote there is no question that she has to go; after all, her whole mission as Prime Minister is Brexit. If that happens, the Conservative Party will either elect a new leader or the UK will face a new general election. And the one thing no Tories want is another general election.

  1. The Labour Government 

In the last general election, Labour picked up votes from both remainers and leavers. As such, the party have been careful to keep their Brexit policies ambiguous. Whenever Corbyn speaks about Brexit, he speaks in ambiguities.

Does Anand believe there is any chance of a second referendum? “The beauty of Britain at the moment is that any outcome is possible – I can imagine us crashing out with no deal or a great deal but I can also imagine a scenario where the first referendum is overturned.”

“No one knows what would happen to public opinion at this point – we could vote Brexit again. Or, imagine second time around the UK votes to remain 52-48 per cent. We’ll find ourselves in a political groundhog day. There would need to be a huge swing in vote for it to carry much weight.”

Ultimately, Anand warns, the real danger for the UK’s economy is that the negotiations go pear shaped, the UK crashes out of the EU in March 2019 and they end up with no wiggle room to extend the UK’s transition period.

His advice to procurement organisations trying to prepare? Plan for a World Trade Organisation outcome from 2021 – “That, I think, is the most likely outcome.”

Deal Or No Deal? The Brexit Effect

What are the implications of Brexit on Procurement? And how should the function be preparing for the various possible outcomes? 

Zycus’ webinar The Brexit Effect Understanding Brexit and Its Impact On Procurement takes place on Tuesday, 21st November 2017. Register for free here.

On June 23 2016, the world woke up to some very unexpected news.

This was the day around 17.4 million people in UK, by a sizeable margin of 52 per cent to 48 per cent, voted to become the first country to leave the European Union.

As the world looked on in shock, the then prime minister David Cameron immediately resigned, leaving his successor Theresa May to handle proceedings. She soon confirmed that Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty would be triggered and did so in March 2017.

From the time the UK submitted its Article 50 letter to the European Commission, a two year formal process of leaving the EU began.  A number of events were set in motion that cannot now be halted without significant agreement between the two governments.

What will happen in these two years?

Within these two years, the UK and the European Commission will either agree upon an interim agreement or trade will be governed under a pre-agreed set of tariffs. The impact of Brexit on the UK economy will be determined largely by whatever relationship the UK manages to forge with the EU, and this may not become clear for number of years.

In these uncertain and unpredictable times, how can procurement professionals prepare and what risks does the function face? In the EU, the public purchase of goods and services has been estimated to be worth 16 per cent of GDP and it is nearly 20 per cent of UK’s GDP.

Regardless of whether you work in the public or private sector, there is no doubt that Brexit’s impact extends across the entire breadth of the procurement industry. It’s really hard to understand how significantly regulations are going to change for procurement.

The worst case scenario for procurement

  • Cost: The costs to import goods within supply chains are likely to rise, whether it’s due to commodity prices or labour cost. In terms of commodity prices, we cannot know for sure of the impact; there could be a major change depending on the value of the pound or we might see no change at all. Labour cost will be dependent on the new immigration regulations, which could make it more expensive to hire EU nationals in the UK and vice versa.
  • Freedom of movement and supply chain delays: There is a chance that there will be a loss in freedom of movement both in goods and services for UK and European businesses with supply chains operating across borders. There is also a possibility that there will be some disruption in existing supply chains because of time-consuming border checks and paperwork at UK ports, which could increase custom processing time.
  • Procurement recruiting and talent management may suffer: Not only the flow of goods and services will be impacted but procurement talent will also be considerably affected. If the “leave” campaign succeeds in stopping migrants from the EU, there is a chance that the procurement talent pool in UK will be considerably reduced. Many of the EU procurement professionals might not want to be a part of UK given the current instability.

Procurement’s Pre-emptive Action

CIPS recently conducted a survey with 2100+ supply chain managers, which delivered some very interesting results:

  • Around 32 per cent of UK businesses using EU suppliers are currently looking for British replacements
  • More than one third of UK businesses plan to respond to Brexit by beating down suppliers’ process
  • 46 per cent of European businesses expect to reduce their use of UK suppliers

As supply chain complexity increases, many British companies are considering the possibility of shifting supplier base from continental EU to the UK. In the meantime, European companies that have operations in the UK are looking at moving their operations outside of the UK to ease business. This is because UK will become a separate market for EU and therefore like we discussed earlier, the movement of goods across borders with the UK will be deemed as imports and exports, attracting new customs controls. This will become more time consuming and attract paperwork, taxes, tariffs, excise duties and VAT which will have direct implications for revenue and cash flow of businesses.

If trade negotiations fail throughout the Brexit process, businesses inside and outside the UK should be ready to explore new options. Procurement must plan ahead to find alternative suppliers or start work with existing suppliers to put deals in place, soon!

If you are curious to know more about how Brexit will impact procurement, do join our upcoming webinar on Brexit featuring industry experts Mark Webb and Jon Hansen. They will be discussing:

  • The impact of Brexit on supplier risk assessment and management
  • The influence of trade tariffs on cost
  • Increasing demand for procurement talent
  • What is the procurement technology answer to Brexit? 

Speakers:

Jon Hansen – Editor and Lead writer at Procurement Insights

Mark Webb – Managing Director at Future Purchasing, UK

Kanishka Ghosh – Director of Product Management at Zycus Inc.

The Brexit Effect Understanding Brexit and Its Impact On Procurement takes place on Tuesday, 21st November 2017. Register for free here.